Mobilitätsszenarien

Mobilitätsszenarien, often translated as mobility scenarios, are hypothetical future situations used to explore and understand potential developments in transportation. They are employed by researchers, planners, and policymakers to anticipate changes in how people and goods will move, considering factors like technological advancements, societal trends, environmental concerns, and economic conditions. These scenarios are not predictions but rather plausible narratives that illustrate different possible pathways for the future of mobility.

The development of mobility scenarios typically involves identifying key driving forces and uncertainties. Driving forces are trends that are likely to continue, such as urbanization or the increasing demand for freight transport. Uncertainties are factors with unpredictable outcomes, such as the pace of autonomous vehicle adoption or shifts in consumer preferences. By combining different combinations of these forces and uncertainties, various scenarios can be constructed.

Common themes explored in mobility scenarios include the role of electric vehicles, the rise of shared mobility services, the impact of digitalization and connectivity, and the potential for more sustainable and active transportation modes like cycling and walking. They help in evaluating the potential consequences of different policy decisions, infrastructure investments, and technological innovations. Ultimately, mobility scenarios serve as a valuable tool for strategic planning and decision-making in the complex and evolving field of transportation.