Medelframtid

Medelframtid is a term used in Swedish-language technical and policy literature to describe the typical time horizon of forecasts, analyses, or projections. The word is formed from medel, meaning average, and framtid, meaning future. The exact meaning of medelframtid varies by field and source, and it is not a universally standardized statistical term. In practice, it refers to the average length of time into the future that a study emphasizes or that a planning process assumes, rather than a fixed mathematical statistic.

Applications and interpretation vary by context. In climate science, medelframtid is often used to indicate the time frame over which risks or impacts are evaluated for decision making, commonly spanning several decades. In economics or demography, it can denote the horizon around which projections are most informative for policy or planning. In urban planning or infrastructure analysis, medelframtid is frequently aligned with policy cycles or budget horizons, such as 10 to 30 years, to balance data reliability and planning relevance.

Limitations include definitional variability and potential ambiguity. Because different studies may define medelframtid differently—whether as the arithmetic mean of multiple scenario horizons, the central planning horizon, or the period most stressed by the analysis—comparisons between sources require careful clarification of how the term is used in each case.

See also: forecast horizon, planning horizon, projection period.