Majandussükkel

Majandussükkel, also known as the business cycle, refers to the recurring but irregular pattern of fluctuations in economic activity that an economy experiences over time. This cycle is characterized by periods of expansion and contraction in overall economic output. While the term "cycle" implies regularity, the duration and intensity of these phases can vary significantly.

The typical business cycle is divided into four phases: expansion, peak, contraction (or recession), and trough. Expansion is a period of sustained growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), with rising employment, industrial production, and consumer spending. This phase continues until the economy reaches its peak, where growth rates slow down, and inflationary pressures may emerge.

Following the peak, the economy enters a contraction or recession, marked by a decline in economic activity. During this phase, GDP falls, unemployment rises, and investment and consumption typically decrease. A recession is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The contraction phase eventually bottoms out at the trough, which represents the lowest point of economic activity in the cycle. After the trough, the economy begins to recover, initiating a new expansion phase.

Various factors can influence the business cycle, including changes in aggregate demand and supply, technological advancements, government policies (fiscal and monetary), and external shocks such as pandemics or geopolitical events. Understanding the business cycle is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and individuals to make informed decisions regarding investment, employment, and economic planning.