Invasionspotential

Invasionspotential (often written "invasion potential") is a concept used in invasion biology and biosecurity to describe the likelihood that a non-native organism will establish, spread, and have ecological, economic, or social impacts in a new area. The concept integrates species traits, environmental suitability, and human-mediated factors that together determine the probability and potential severity of an invasion.

Determinants commonly considered include propagule pressure (number and frequency of introductions), life-history traits (reproductive rate, dispersal ability, phenotypic plasticity), compatibility with local climate and habitats, disturbance regimes, and interactions with native species (competition, predation, disease). Human activities such as trade, travel, landscape modification, and deliberate introduction can greatly increase invasion potential by creating pathways and disturbed environments that favor non-native species.

Assessment methods range from qualitative expert judgement to quantitative tools such as species distribution models, pathway analyses, and invasion risk indices. These assessments inform surveillance priorities, prevention strategies, and management responses.

Management approaches aimed at reducing invasion potential emphasize prevention (pathway regulation, inspection, quarantine), early detection and rapid response, containment and eradication where feasible, and long-term measures such as habitat restoration and public education. The concept is also applied in agricultural, forestry, and aquaculture contexts and sometimes used metaphorically in socio-political or military discussions, though its primary usage remains ecological and regulatory.