Incidentkansen

Incidentkansen is a term used in risk assessment and safety engineering to denote the probability that a specified incident will occur within a defined system and time frame. The concept provides a way to quantify risk by expressing the likelihood of an event such as equipment failure, security breach, or process disruption. In Dutch-language practice, incidentkansen can be estimated for different exposure periods (for example per hour, per cycle, per year) and can be reported as a probability or as a qualitative risk rating (low, medium, high).

Estimation methods include using historical incident data, failure rates, or exposure levels. In a Poisson model, the probability of at least one incident in a period T is 1 - exp(-lambda*T), where lambda is the incident rate. Bayesian updating, Markov models, or FMEA/FTA-derived data can be used when data are scarce. In IT and cyber contexts, incidentkansen may be calibrated using detected incident counts and severity classes.

Applications of incidentkansen include prioritizing safety improvements, maintenance schedules, cyber defenses, and emergency response planning. It supports risk-based decision making, such as determining acceptable risk levels or evaluating the impact of mitigations like redundancy, detection, or training.

Limitations of incidentkansen include dependence on data quality, changes in operating conditions, and model assumptions. Rare events are difficult to estimate reliably; incidents may be underreported; and correlation between events can bias results. It is typically used together with other risk measures and qualitative assessments.

See also: probability, risk assessment, incident management, FMEA, FTA, Poisson process.