Horizonbasierte

Horizonbasierte is a German term used to describe approaches, analyses, or models that organize work around defined horizons—most often temporal horizons such as short-, medium-, and long-term, but also spatial horizons that reflect a system’s reach or visibility. The term is widely used in foresight, forecasting, and planning, but appears in other domains where time or space are partitioned for analytical reasons.

In foresight and forecasting, horizon-based methods produce separate projections for each horizon, acknowledging that dynamics and uncertainties can differ across time frames. In planning and urban development, horizon-based analyses assess impacts, costs, and benefits within specific time periods or within a given spatial influence, helping to align decisions with expected changes.

In risk management and environmental science, horizon-based approaches evaluate risk, exposure, or policy effects across multiple horizons, enabling staged response and adaptive planning. A common feature is an explicit definition of the horizon, modular analysis by horizon, and a method to synthesize results into an overall assessment.

Advantages include clearer communication of assumptions, better alignment of data and methods to each horizon, and improved handling of uncertainty. Limitations involve selecting appropriate horizons, potential inconsistencies between horizons, and the need for sufficient data across all horizons.

Originating from the German language, horizonbasierte is used primarily as a descriptive term rather than a formal, standardized concept. See also horizon scanning, time horizon, scenario planning, foresight.