Folketap

Folketap is a term used in Norwegian demography to describe a decline in the size of a population, resulting from births falling short of deaths and/or from net outward migration. It is applied to historical population losses as well as to contemporary trends, and it highlights the combined effects of natural decrease and migratory flows on population size.

Causes of folketap include high mortality from wars, epidemics, or famines; long-term demographic patterns such as aging populations and below-replacement fertility; and migration, including emigration and sustained out-migration to urban areas or other regions. These factors can act together or separately to reduce the number of residents in a given area.

Measurement and indicators rely on population counts from censuses, vital statistics on births and deaths, and migration data. Negative natural increase (births fewer than deaths) and negative net migration are central components. Demographers may use the cohort-component method to reconstruct past losses and to project future population size under varying assumptions.

Context and implications vary by scale. Folketap can occur at local, regional, or national levels and may influence labor markets, age structure, public services, and economic development. In modern societies, rural areas often experience folketap due to urbanization and economic restructuring, while some regions may offset losses through in-migration or policy measures.

Management and policy responses commonly aim to counteract folketap through incentives to increase birth rates, immigration policies, regional development, and efforts to improve living conditions to attract and retain residents.

See also: depopulation, population decline, natural decrease, migration.