DSGEmodellek

DSGEmodellek, the Hungarian term for Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, are a class of macroeconomic models used to analyze how economies respond to shocks and policy under uncertainty. They rest on microfoundations, assume rational expectations, and solve for the dynamic interactions of agents in general equilibrium.

A typical model includes households, firms, a government sector, and a monetary authority; markets for goods, capital, and often labor; and stochastic processes for technology, preferences, and policy shocks. Prices and wages often adjust with frictions. The model is solved for decision rules by optimization and market-clearing conditions, usually via linearization around a steady state or nonlinear numerical methods.

Parameterization is achieved through calibration or estimation. Calibration selects parameter values to match macro moments; estimation, often Bayesian, uses data to infer structural parameters and shocks. Solutions yield impulse response functions, variance decompositions, and policy counterfactuals.

Uses include evaluating monetary and fiscal policies, testing rule-based strategies (such as interest rate rules), forecasting, and analyzing stabilization mechanisms under uncertainty. DSGEmodellek are widely employed by central banks, international organizations, and academic researchers.

Limitations include strong reliance on representative-agent microfoundations, simplified financial sectors, and potential misspecification of frictions. Results can be sensitive to calibration, priors, and the choice of model features. Critics argue that real economies exhibit features not fully captured by DSGEmodellek, such as credit cycles and distributional effects.

History: DSGE modeling emerged in the 1980s and 1990s as an extension of real business cycle and New Classical frameworks, with contributions from researchers like Sims and Prescott. The approach gained prominence in policy institutions during the late 1990s and 2000s as a standard tool for analysis and forecasting.