Catastrophefocused

Catastrophefocused is a term used to describe an approach or mindset that foregrounds catastrophic or extreme outcomes—low-probability but high-impact events—in analysis, planning, and design. It emphasizes preparing for tail risks and tipping points that could cause systemic failures, rather than focusing solely on more likely, moderate scenarios. This orientation can inform decisions across fields such as public policy, engineering, finance, climate adaptation, cyber security, and disaster response.

The phrase is a contemporary neologism without a single canonical definition. It is typically used descriptively to contrast with risk models that prioritize average outcomes or frequent events. In practice, catastrophefocused thinking integrates scenario-based methods, stress testing, red-teaming, and robustness checks that probe vulnerabilities under extreme conditions, including compound or cascading failures. Proponents argue that it helps reveal hidden dependencies, margins of safety, and critical bottlenecks that might be overlooked by conventional risk assessments.

Applications of catastrophefocused thinking include urban and infrastructure planning that accounts for extreme weather and seismic events, financial risk management that considers black swan or tail-risk scenarios, and organizational resilience planning that tests response capabilities under severe disruption. In research and policy discussions, critics warn that an overemphasis on rare catastrophes can divert attention and resources from more probable risks or urgent everyday concerns.

Related concepts include scenario planning, tail risk, black swan events, resilience theory, and stress testing. The term is often encountered in discussions about risk governance, climate risk, and preparedness strategies where preserving function in the face of extreme disruption is a central objective.