Anchoring

Anchoring is a cognitive bias in which an initial reference point, or anchor, exerts undue influence on subsequent judgments and decisions. People tend to rely on the anchor and make insufficient adjustments away from it when estimating quantities, probabilities, or outcomes.

The term derives from research by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the 1970s on the anchoring and adjustment heuristic. In experiments, subjects exposed to high anchors (for example, a high number) gave higher estimates than those exposed to low anchors, even when anchors were clearly arbitrary. The mechanism involves the initial valuation acting as a starting point; adjustments from that point are often too small, especially under time pressure, cognitive load, or limited information.

Anchoring appears in many domains, including consumer pricing, negotiation, medical decision making, and legal judgments. It can occur with consciously set anchors (such as a proposed price) or implicit anchors derived from prior experiences and context. The effect is surprisingly robust across tasks and populations, though expertise, task structure, and the availability of base-rate information can modulate its strength.

Mitigation strategies include presenting multiple reference points, encouraging independent estimates, explicitly separating assessment from first impressions, and training to consider base rates and alternative anchors. Awareness alone reduces but does not eliminate anchoring, which remains a common factor in everyday judgments and strategic decisions.