överprecision

Overprecision is a cognitive bias in which people are overly confident in the accuracy of their beliefs, judgments, or forecasts. It is a specific form of overconfidence that concerns the perceived precision of knowledge, often resulting in narrow estimates or overly confident conclusions that do not reflect actual uncertainty.

In practice, overprecision shows up when individuals give precise forecasts or tight confidence intervals that subsequently prove unreliable. For example, a forecast might be stated with a high probability that a value will lie within a very small range, but later evidence reveals a broader spread or an incorrect central estimate. Research in psychology and behavioral economics demonstrates that people frequently misjudge how uncertain they are, leading to calibration errors and overconfident decision making.

Overprecision affects a range of domains, including finance, policy, and everyday judgment. It can contribute to underestimated risks, insufficient contingency planning, and abrupt changes in course when new information arrives. It often coexists with other components of overconfidence, such as overestimation of one’s abilities or the likelihood of positive outcomes, amplifying biased decisions.

Causes of overprecision include cognitive simplifications, selective information processing, and motivational factors such as the desire to appear competent. Training and decision-making methods that explicitly address uncertainty can help mitigate it. Techniques include eliciting probabilistic estimates, using intervals rather than single point guesses, seeking diverse viewpoints, and providing feedback that highlights the accuracy of past judgments.