tussunlikkusstseenariuanalüüsi

Tussunlikkusstseenariuanalüüsi, often abbreviated as TSU, is a method used to examine potential future scenarios and their implications. It involves identifying a range of plausible future events or conditions and analyzing how they might interact and unfold. The core purpose of TSU is to prepare for uncertainty and to develop strategies that are robust across different potential futures.

The process typically begins with brainstorming or identifying key driving forces that are likely to shape the future. These forces can be technological, economic, social, political, or environmental. Once these drivers are identified, different combinations and trajectories are explored to create a set of distinct, yet plausible, future scenarios. Each scenario represents a coherent vision of how the future might look.

Following the development of scenarios, TSU involves analyzing the implications of each scenario for a particular entity, such as an organization, a policy, or a project. This analysis might involve assessing risks, opportunities, and the potential impact on objectives. The ultimate goal is not to predict a single future, but to foster a deeper understanding of the range of possibilities and to inform decision-making by highlighting potential vulnerabilities and areas for proactive intervention. TSU encourages flexible thinking and adaptive planning in the face of an unpredictable future.