tururisk

Tururisk is a term used in risk studies to denote a hypothetical composite measure of potential loss from disruptive events in complex systems. The concept is primarily employed in theoretical, educational, and simulation contexts rather than as a standardized statistical metric.

In practice, tururisk treats a set of scenarios as contributing to overall risk. Each scenario is described by a probability p and an expected loss L. The tururisk of a scenario family is typically aggregated as a weighted sum, such as tururisk = sum over scenarios of p × L, possibly with normalization or caps to reflect uncertainty.

Applications include supply chain resilience analyses, critical infrastructure planning, and organizational risk benchmarking, where the aim is to compare mitigation strategies under diverse disruption patterns. Tururisk can help illustrate how different combinations of likelihood and impact accumulate to a total risk exposure.

Limitations include lack of standardization, dependence on how scenarios are defined, and potential misinterpretation as a direct probability. Results should be reported with explicit assumptions, data sources, and sensitivity analyses to avoid over- or under-estimating risk.

Origin and usage vary; tururisk is often described as a pedagogical or exploratory tool that helps illustrate how different risk components combine, rather than a universally accepted metric. In scholarly and practitioner contexts, it is typically treated as a framework for comparing strategies rather than a definitive numerical forecast.