referentieklasseforecasting
Referentieklasseforecasting, also known as reference class forecasting, is a prediction technique that improves the accuracy of estimates by comparing a project or decision with a group of similar, past projects. The method was popularized in the 1990s by economist Daniel Kahneman and his colleagues, who identified it as a remedy to the planning fallacy—a tendency for planners to underestimate costs and timelines and overestimate benefits.
The process begins by defining a reference class that captures projects sharing key characteristics such as
Key advantages of reference class forecasting include its grounding in actual empirical data, its resistance to
In practice, reference class forecasting is often integrated into decision-making frameworks such as risk management, earned