recesering

Recesering is a term found in Dutch-language economic discourse to denote the onset and course of a recession. It describes a period during which a country’s economy experiences a sustained contraction in real activity, typically accompanied by higher unemployment and lower investment and consumption. While there is no single universal threshold, two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth is a common practical rule, with additional signals such as falling retail sales, industrial production, and consumer confidence.

Causes and indicators: Recesering can result from demand shocks (reduced household spending and business investment), supply shocks (energy prices or disrupted supply chains), financial disturbances, or external shocks such as a downturn in major trading partners. It may be triggered by policy tightening, asset-price corrections, or underlying structural weaknesses. Key indicators include real GDP, unemployment rate, inflation, consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI, and the yield curve.

Impact and policy: Recesering typically reduces income and living standards, damages corporate profitability, and strains public finances. Policy responses commonly involve monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, automatic stabilizers, and targeted support for affected sectors. Debates center on the timing, scale, and efficiency of interventions, and on the risks of rising debt or inflation during recovery. Recoveries vary in pace, with potential long-term effects on potential output and labor markets if scarring occurs.