prevísos

Prevísos is a fictional concept used in speculative fiction and worldbuilding to describe short-term probabilistic forecasts of imminent events within a defined system. It functions as a formalism distinct from real-world forecasting methods, though it draws on familiar ideas from statistics, data fusion, and scenario planning.

In the imagined universe where Prevísos originates, the term combines a sense of foresight with probabilistic reasoning. Its etymology is presented as a constructed neologism rather than a historical linguistic lineage, and its details vary by author or setting. The concept is typically treated as a computable or cognitive process that yields time-bound predictions for minutes to hours ahead.

Methodologically, Prevísos is described as aggregating diverse inputs—sensor data, expert judgments, and historical patterns—then producing ensembles of forecast scenarios. The outputs are probabilistic estimates or confidence bands rather than single deterministic forecasts, emphasizing uncertainty and distributional thinking. Some narratives attribute the generation of Prevísos to specialized engines, networked observers, or trained analysts who operate under defined ethical constraints.

Applications within fiction often involve decision support for emergency response, logistics, or governance. Prevísos can drive plot mechanisms such as risk assessment, resource allocation, or early-warning triggers, highlighting the tension between information, action, and consequence. Critics within these works may question model bias, interpretability, and the moral implications of foreknowledge.

See also forecasts, probabilistic reasoning, scenario planning.