predpovede

Predpovede is a term used in the Czech language for forecasts or predictions about future events or conditions. In English, the closest terms are forecast or prediction. Predpovede span many domains, including weather, climate, economics, politics, and social trends. They are produced from data, models, and human judgment, and are inherently uncertain.

The best-known application is meteorology, where predpovede describe short- and medium-range weather conditions. They are also used for economic and demographic outlooks, public health projections, and risk assessments in various industries. Forecasters communicate a range of possible outcomes rather than absolutes, reflecting different scenarios and confidence levels.

Forecasting relies on methods such as statistical modeling, numerical simulation, machine learning, time-series analysis, and scenario planning. Forecast accuracy is evaluated against observed outcomes using metrics including accuracy, mean absolute error, root mean square error, Brier score, and reliability diagrams. Validation and back-testing help assess model performance and guide improvements.

Predpovede remain imperfect representations of possible futures. Uncertainty arises from limited data, model assumptions, structural changes, and unforeseen events. Transparent communication of confidence and limitations helps users interpret forecasts for planning and decision making, whether for individual choices, business strategy, or public policy.