planningoverstep

Planningoverstep is a term used in decision theory and management to describe a tendency to extend planning horizons beyond what is practical or beneficial in a given context. It occurs when anticipatory analysis about distant outcomes dominates decision-making, leading to increased complexity, resource allocation for unlikely contingencies, and delayed action without commensurate gains. In practice, planningoverstep can appear in corporate strategy, project management, urban planning, and autonomous systems that rely on long-horizon simulations.

The exact origin of the term is unclear; it has appeared in academic discussions since the early 2020s as a label for the risk of excessive planning. It is closely related to the concept of overplanning and to the idea of bounded rationality, which recognizes cognitive or organizational limits to forecasting.

Causes include optimism bias about distant outcomes, information overload, incentive structures that reward perfect plans rather than timely action, and the misalignment of planning and execution horizons. The effect is to increase evaluation costs, stall implementation, and create plan fragility when assumptions prove incorrect.

Examples include a software project that spends months refining an architectural plan while user needs evolve, or a city master plan that prioritizes long-term extreme scenarios at the expense of near-term housing needs. Mitigation strategies emphasize constraining horizon length, focusing on incremental milestones, modular design, iterative budgeting, and regular reevaluation of assumptions. In AI and robotics, planningoverstep is mitigated by anytime planning, horizon pruning, and bounded search techniques.

See also: planning horizon, bounded rationality, overplanning, decision analysis.