longtermism

Longtermism is an ethical view that the moral importance of actions is determined by their effects on the long-term future. Proponents contend that because humanity could exist for many generations and potentially experience vast numbers of future lives, improving the distant future can have greater overall value than focusing only on near-term outcomes. This implies that small probabilities of large, lasting effects deserve serious consideration.

Philosophically, longtermism often rests on consequentialist reasoning and the impartial weighting of present and future beings. A central focus is reducing existential risks—events that could cause human extinction or permanently impair humanity’s potential. It also addresses how we guide the development and governance of transformative technologies, such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and climate stability. Within longtermism, some thinkers emphasize actively improving the long-term trajectory (positive longtermism) while others stress mitigating grave risks.

Origins and influence: the idea has been developed within the effective altruism movement and gained prominence through scholars such as William MacAskill. It is associated with research centers and institutes that study global priorities and existential risk, including the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford, the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at Cambridge, and related initiatives like the Global Priorities Institute.

Criticism and debate: critics argue that longtermism relies on speculative forecasts, underweights near-term suffering, or risks prioritizing distant outcomes at the expense of present needs. Some raise concerns about potential cultural or political biases and the methods used to compare vastly unlike futures.

Practical implications: in policy and philanthropy, longtermism has motivated funding for AI safety, biosecurity, climate resilience, and governance research, while continuing to provoke discussion about ethical foundations and decision-making under deep uncertainty.