inköpschefsindex

Inköpschefsindex, commonly abbreviated as PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), is a diffusion index derived from monthly surveys of purchasing managers across the private sector, typically covering manufacturing and services. The instrument aims to provide a timely gauge of economic activity and business conditions. The index is built from questions about variables such as new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Responses are aggregated into a single index, with readings above 50 indicating expansion compared with the previous month and readings below 50 signaling contraction.

Methodology and publication: PMIs are published monthly by research organizations such as S&P Global (which conducts the Markit PMI surveys) and, in the United States, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Many countries publish their own versions, often produced by banks, statistical agencies, or business associations, following similar survey designs. Some PMIs cover manufacturing only, while others publish separate services PMIs or a composite PMI that combines sectors.

Interpretation and use: PMIs are widely regarded as leading indicators of economic activity and are used by policymakers, investors, and economists to assess the momentum of the economy and to anticipate changes in GDP growth. A PMI above 50 generally suggests expansion, while a drop toward or below 50 indicates slower activity or contraction. Cross-country comparisons require caution due to methodological differences.

Limitations: PMIs reflect the views of a subset of firms and may not capture informal activity. They can be affected by survey design, seasonal adjustment, and revisions; and differences in methodology can complicate direct comparisons across countries.