inflatierisico

Inflatierisico is a neologism used in risk management to describe the tendency to overstate assessed risk in financial, operational, or strategic models due to inflation of inputs, calibration targets, or reporting incentives. The concept captures how inflationary pressures and methodological choices can push risk metrics upward beyond what is warranted by the underlying data.

Origin and usage: The term appears in discussions of risk modelling and governance as a portmanteau that combines inflation effects with rischio, the Italian word for risk. It is not a formally defined standard term in major risk frameworks, but is used informally to discuss bias in risk estimation and presentation.

Mechanisms: Overestimation can arise from adjusting historical data for inflation, selecting stress scenarios that systematically inflate risk, or dashboards that reward conservative risk estimates. Data contamination, model misspecification, and incentive structures in organizations can contribute to inflatierisico.

Implications: Inflated risk measures influence capital allocation, pricing, and reserve planning, potentially leading to conservative decisions or misallocation of resources. Recognizing inflatierisico can promote clearer calibration, better scenario design, and more transparent governance around risk reporting.

Relation to other concepts: It overlaps with model risk, estimation bias, and inflation risk. Critics argue that the term can be vague unless clearly defined and operationalized within a specific methodological context.

See also: inflation risk, model risk, estimation bias, risk governance, stress testing.