groeiprognoses

Groeiprognoses, literally growth forecasts, are projections of future economic growth for a country, region, or sector. They typically focus on gross domestic product (GDP) growth but may also address related indicators such as productivity and potential output. They are produced by a range of actors—government agencies, central banks, international organizations, and private research institutes—and are published on a regular schedule to guide policy and planning.

Forecasts are generated with economic models and data. Common approaches include macroeconomic models (DSGE, VARs), time-series extrapolation, and production-function estimates. Analysts use indicators such as consumption, investment, employment, trade, inflation, and policy expectations. Scenarios and stress tests illustrate how the outlook could change under different policy, external, or financial assumptions. Forecasts are revised as new data arrive.

Groeiprognoses support budget planning, monetary policy, investment decisions, and risk assessment. They are inherently uncertain and sensitive to policy shifts, global conditions, and shocks. Revisions are common, and forecasts from different institutions may diverge, especially over longer horizons. Users should consider the underlying assumptions, model limitations, and uncertainty when interpreting projections.

Notable producers include the Dutch CPB (Centraal Planbureau) for the Netherlands, as well as IMF, OECD, and European Commission forecasts. Regional agencies and private firms also publish growth projections.