futurologi

Futurology, or futures studies, is an interdisciplinary field that examines possible, probable, and desirable futures and the drivers that shape them. It seeks to broaden understanding beyond short-term trends by analyzing social, technological, economic, environmental, and political developments and their potential interactions. The aim is to inform decision-making in policy, business, and civil society.

The field uses a range of methods, including trend analysis, scenario planning, horizon scanning, and structured expert judgment (such as Delphi surveys). Other approaches include backcasting from desired futures, systems thinking, modeling, and cross-impact analysis. By combining qualitative and quantitative methods, futures studies explores not only what might happen, but how decisions today could influence future outcomes.

Subfields and applications cover technology futures, environmental futures, urban futures, health futures, and risk and resilience. Practitioners work in universities, think tanks, government agencies, corporations, and non-governmental organizations to address long-term planning, strategic foresight, and policy development. The discipline often emphasizes ethical and normative questions about what kind of future is preferable and how to steer developments toward broadly beneficial outcomes.

Critiques of futurology focus on the inherent uncertainty of predictions, the risk of bias, and the potential for overconfidence. Proponents argue that its value lies in expanding options, challenging assumptions, and improving preparedness, rather than claiming precise forecasts. See also futures studies, scenario planning, horizon scanning, and backcasting.