fortunepersisted

Fortunepersisted is a coined term used to describe the observed persistence of favorable outcomes beyond what initial luck would predict, often attributed to feedback effects, selection biases, and cognitive framing. The concept appears in informal discussions across economics, entrepreneurship, and social dynamics to explain why advantageous events can seem to accumulate over time.

The term does not refer to a single formal theory but to a cluster of related ideas. Mechanisms typically associated with fortunepersisted include momentum effects, where early success attracts more resources, attention, and opportunities; survivorship bias, which highlights successful cases while overlooking failures; and behavioral reinforcement, where belief in ongoing luck leads to risk-taking that sustains or amplifies favorable trajectories. Because the term is informal, there is no universally accepted operational definition or statistical test, and it is often discussed in relation to concepts such as momentum in markets, path dependence, or lucky-event clustering.

In its usage, fortunepersisted serves as a heuristic to describe patterns rather than a causal claim. Critics caution that apparent persistence can arise from well-understood probabilistic phenomena, selection effects, or data-snooping biases, rather than a novel mechanism. As a result, the term remains flexible and varies in meaning across discussions, serving more as a descriptive lens than as a substitute for rigorous analysis.

See also: momentum, path dependence, survivorship bias, gambler’s fallacy, feedback loop, compounding.