eelarvestust

Eelarvestust is a term used in Estonian budgeting to describe the process of producing a preliminary estimate of a public or organizational budget before the formal draft is prepared. It involves forecasting expected revenues and projected expenditures, as well as assessing the likely fiscal position for upcoming periods. The purpose is to provide decision-makers with an early, evidence-based basis for policy choices and resource allocation.

Typically, eelarvestust is conducted by the Ministry of Finance or an equivalent financial authority within a government, and may also be used by large public agencies or local governments. The process aims to capture macroeconomic assumptions, revenue potential, and major expenditure pressures, and to identify early risks and uncertainties that could affect the budget. It often serves as input for the upcoming budget cycle, including the development of targets, policy options, and the overall structure of the draft budget.

The methodology usually combines data gathering with macroeconomic forecasting, revenue projections, and expenditure planning. Analysts perform scenario analysis to explore best-, baseline-, and worst-case outcomes, and they assess fiscal sustainability under different conditions. The results are compiled into a formal document or briefing that informs policymakers and is often published as part of the budget preparation process.

Limitations of eelarvestust include reliance on imperfect data and models, long-term uncertainty, and the potential for strategic bias in early estimates. As new information becomes available, estimates are revised, and the process feeds into the final budget proposal and parliamentary approval. See also eelarve.