beroepprognoses

Beroepsprognoses are forward-looking assessments of how demand for different occupations will evolve over a specified time horizon. They estimate expected job creation and decline by occupation, often broken down by region, sector, and required education or skill level. They are produced by government agencies, labor market institutes, educational authorities, and sometimes private forecasting firms.

The purpose of beroepsprognoses is to inform policy, education, and workforce planning. They help identify occupations with rising demand or skill shortages, guide curriculum development and vocational training, support career guidance, and assist employers in succession planning and recruitment strategies.

Methodologically, occupational prognoses combine data and models that reflect demographic trends, macroeconomic projections, technological change, and policy scenarios. Common inputs include labor force surveys, population and migration projections, census data, job vacancy statistics, and industry outlooks. Methods include time-series forecasting, input–output analyses, and scenario or Delphi approaches that incorporate expert judgment. Projections are often published at national, regional, or sectoral levels and may be detailed to the level of individual occupations or skill clusters.

Limitations and interpretation: occupational prognoses rely on assumptions about future conditions and thus carry inherent uncertainty. They may be affected by changes in technology, global demand, policy, or education pipelines. As such, they provide scenarios rather than precise predictions and are regularly revised as new data become available.