Väliskenaariot

Väliskenaariot are hypothetical future scenarios used in strategic planning and risk assessment. The term, originating from Finnish, translates to "external scenarios." These scenarios are not predictions of what will happen, but rather plausible narratives that explore a range of possible futures. They are developed to help organizations understand potential disruptions and opportunities arising from external factors beyond their direct control.

The process of developing väliskenaariot typically involves identifying key drivers of change, such as technological advancements, political shifts, economic trends, and societal evolutions. These drivers are then combined in various ways to create a set of distinct, yet plausible, future worlds. Each scenario is fleshed out with detailed descriptions of how these drivers might interact and what the resulting environment would look like.

The primary purpose of väliskenaariot is to foster strategic thinking and enhance preparedness. By examining a spectrum of possible futures, organizations can identify vulnerabilities, test the resilience of their current strategies, and develop adaptive plans. This can lead to more robust decision-making, innovation, and a greater ability to navigate uncertainty. They are a tool for challenging assumptions and encouraging a broader perspective on the future landscape.