Upptrappningförväntan

Upptrappningförväntan is a term used in conflict studies and social psychology to describe the belief or anticipation that a dispute will escalate, and the associated tendency for actors to adjust their behavior accordingly. The expectation itself can influence outcomes, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of increasing hostility or caution.

Etymology: a Swedish compound formed from upptrappning (escalation) and förväntan (expectation). In Swedish-language scholarship it denotes both cognitive anticipations and strategic beliefs about future escalation, with occasional usage in international literature on escalation dynamics.

Mechanisms: anticipatory signaling, threat appraisal, and perceived irreversibility can drive escalation. Actors may harden positions, escalate resource commitment, or constrain options for de-escalation because they want to appear resolute or deter opponents. The expectation itself can become a causal factor, a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Contexts: interpersonal conflicts, organizational disputes, labor negotiations, international security, and online deliberations. It is used to analyze why disputes sometimes worsen after initial grievances and how early signals influence subsequent choices.

Relation and critique: related to the broader concepts of self-fulfilling prophecy and escalation dynamics. Some scholars caution that focusing on expectations risks underappreciating structural causes, such as power asymmetries, incentives, and information asymmetry. Empirical treatment remains limited and case-based.