Trusselsmodeller

Trusselsmodeller is a term used in the field of computational urban science to describe a family of modeling approaches designed to simulate the dynamics of urban and regional systems. Objects of study include land use, transportation, housing, and social interactions, with a particular emphasis on spatially explicit representations and scenario analysis. Trusselsmodeller combines agent-based modeling with network analysis and GIS data to produce traceable, policy-relevant projections. Models can be calibrated against demographic, mobility, and land-use datasets, and are capable of running multiple scenarios to support planning decisions.

Origin and development: The concept emerged in European urban-modelling research in the early 2010s as researchers sought modular, transparent tools for evaluating planning policies. The name has become associated with a family of open or semi-open toolkits that emphasize reproducibility and stakeholder engagement. Architecture typically includes a modular core, data adapters, and visualization interfaces.

Methodology: A typical trusselsmodeller workflow includes data collection and cleaning, model configuration, calibration/validation, scenario design, simulation, and results interpretation. The framework supports multi-scale representations, from neighborhood to metropolitan levels, and produces outputs such as population distribution, traffic volumes, and land-use change indicators.

Applications and reception: Practitioners use trusselsmodeller to assess impacts of zoning changes, transit investments, or resilience measures. The approach is praised for its transparency and flexibility but criticized for data demands, calibration challenges, and sensitivity to assumptions.

See also: Agent-based model, UrbanSim, MATSim, Spatial interaction model.