Technologiezyklen

Technologiezyklen, often translated as technology cycles or technology life cycles, describe the patterned progression of a technology from inception to decline or renewal. The concept is used in economics, business strategy, and policy analysis to understand how technologies emerge, diffuse, mature, and are eventually replaced or transformed.

Technologiezyklen typically unfold in several phases. Invention and exploration precede early development and pilots, followed by rapid diffusion as users and firms test applications. Growth accelerates with market penetration and standardization, while maturity brings widespread adoption, efficiency gains, and the emergence of dominant designs. Eventually, growth slows, markets saturate, and opportunities shift toward renewal through new technological breakthroughs or business models.

The drivers of cycles include scientific breakthroughs, investments in R&D, network effects, standardization, regulation, and the availability of complementary assets. Cycles are path dependent: earlier investments shape later options, and incumbents may resist disruptive changes while newcomers exploit them. External factors such as macroeconomic conditions, educational systems, and geopolitical considerations can also influence cycle length and intensity.

For firms, recognizing a technology cycle informs research agendas, capital allocation, and timing of product launches. For policymakers, cycles highlight the importance of R&D incentives, infrastructure, and competition policy to maintain healthy innovation with positive spillovers. The framework helps explain why some technologies rapidly transform industries while others encounter slower uptake or face repeated reinvention.

Critics argue that technology cycles are stylized and may vary across sectors and regions. Some technologies experience multiple renewal waves, while others fade quickly. The concept should be used alongside sector-specific analyses and empirical data on diffusion, performance, and user needs.