Signalbetinging

Signalbetinging is a term used to describe a systematic, data-driven approach to placing bets based on signals derived from diverse data sources. It is used in sports betting, prediction markets, and some forms of financial betting. Signals can be quantitative, such as expected goals, team form, player injuries, odds movement, or model forecasts, as well as qualitative indicators like expert sentiment. Signals are typically aggregated into a bet decision using a predefined policy for stake sizing, commonly using risk management frameworks like the Kelly criterion or fixed-fraction approaches.

The practice involves data collection, signal generation, signal aggregation, and bet execution. The goal is to identify moments when a signal indicates a positive expected value relative to the price or odds offered. Backtesting on historical data is a standard evaluation method, followed by limited live testing to gauge robustness. Limitations include overfitting, data-snooping, non-stationary relationships, and the influence of liquidity and market efficiency on signal reliability. In sports betting, signalbetinging may supplement traditional handicapping with quantitative insights; in prediction markets, it may refer to signals that move contract prices. Critics argue that signals can become self-defeating as markets adapt, and that the edge is often small and hard to maintain.