Risikomenge

Risikomenge is a term used in German-language risk analysis to describe a quantitative measure of risk exposure. It refers to the amount or magnitude of risk associated with a given decision, project, or system, and is often intended to support comparison and prioritization.

In practice, Risikomenge is commonly defined as a sum of risk effects across identified events. A typical formulation is the sum over events i of the probability of the event p_i multiplied by its impact I_i, sometimes expressed as R = Σ p_i · I_i. The measure can be reported in monetary units (the expected monetary value of risk) or in standardized risk units, depending on the available data and the chosen aggregation approach. Some applications adjust for mitigation effects or for time horizons, yielding R = Σ p_i · (I_i − mitigation_i) or a time-discounted version.

Calculation considerations include event selection, probability estimates, and impact assessment. When risks are correlated, or when distributions are continuous rather than discrete, practitioners may use variants that incorporate correlations or integrate over probability distributions. Sensitivity analyses are often performed to understand how changes in input assumptions affect Risikomenge.

Applications and interpretation: Risikomenge is used to prioritize risks, compare projects, allocate resources for risk treatment, and communicate exposure to stakeholders. It complements other metrics such as value-at-risk, expected shortfall, or qualitative risk assessments; it is not a universal standard and may be defined differently across organizations.

Limitations: The quality of Risikomenge depends on the completeness of risk identification and the accuracy of probability and impact estimates. It can be sensitive to modelling choices and may underrepresent low-probability, high-impact events if not explicitly included.