Retrospektivbias

Retrospektivbias, also known as hindsight bias or the "I-knew-it-all-along" phenomenon, is a cognitive bias where people tend to see past events as more predictable than they actually were. This bias makes individuals believe that a particular outcome was inevitable or foreseeable once it has already occurred, even if they had no prior indication of that outcome.

This phenomenon can affect decision-making and judgment. After an event, people may overestimate their ability to predict its occurrence, leading to an inaccurate assessment of their past foresight. For example, after a stock market crash, an investor might believe they "saw it coming" even if they did not have concrete evidence to support this belief at the time.

Retrospektivbias can influence how individuals learn from experience. By overestimating predictability, people may not adequately analyze the true uncertainties and decision points that existed before an event, hindering their ability to develop better strategies for future situations. It can also lead to self-blame or misplaced confidence, depending on whether the outcome was positive or negative. Researchers often study this bias in fields such as psychology, economics, and history to understand human judgment and decision-making processes.