Recurrencyrisico

Recurrencyrisico, of recurrence risk, is the risk that an event or loss that has occurred previously will happen again within a defined period or under similar conditions. It is a component of risk assessment and is used across domains to understand the likelihood and potential impact of repeated incidents.

In health care and genetics, recurrence risk refers to the probability that a disease or condition will return after treatment or that a genetic condition will be passed on to offspring. It is influenced by factors such as disease biology, genetics, treatment effectiveness, and ongoing exposure to risk factors, and it informs counseling, follow-up planning, and decision making.

In other sectors, recurrencyrisico describes the chance that prior incidents—such as a cyberattack, system outage, manufacturing defect, or natural hazard—will reoccur, possibly with similar consequences. The time horizon and the definition of recurrence are context-specific, and the concept is used to prioritize preventive measures and resource allocation.

Assessment methods include analysis of historical incident data, trend analysis, and probabilistic models such as renewal processes, Poisson processes, or Markov chains. Qualitative methods and expert judgment are also used when data are scarce or the process is non-stationary.

Mitigation aims to reduce both the probability and impact of recurrence by addressing root causes, strengthening controls, improving monitoring and detection, increasing redundancy, and preparing effective contingency plans. Limitations include data gaps, changing exposure, non-stationarity, and the difficulty of distinguishing true recurrence from new events.