QRISK

QRISK is a family of cardiovascular risk prediction algorithms used to estimate an individual's 10-year risk of developing a cardiovascular event, such as a heart attack or stroke. The tool is widely used in UK primary care to help guide preventive decisions, including the consideration of lipid-lowering therapies.

Developed from large UK primary care databases, QRISK was created to provide a locally calibrated alternative to international risk scores. It has undergone several updates, with QRISK2 and QRISK3 representing major revisions that expand inputs and improve calibration using linked electronic health records from sources such as national general practice datasets. The models are designed to reflect contemporary populations and practice patterns in the United Kingdom.

Inputs commonly used in QRISK calculations include a person’s age and sex, ethnicity, deprivation index, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, lipid measurements or cholesterol ratios, body mass index, and a history of conditions such as diabetes or kidney disease. Additional risk factors were incorporated in newer versions to enhance accuracy across diverse patient groups, and the model is periodically updated to maintain relevance with current epidemiology and data.

The output is a percentage estimate of the probability of experiencing a cardiovascular event within 10 years. QRISK is intended to support shared decision-making between clinicians and patients and to stratify patients by risk to determine appropriate preventive interventions. Limitations include its UK-specific calibration, reliance on the quality of electronic health records, and potential imperfect performance in non-UK populations or subgroups with limited data.