Proliferationsindices

Proliferationsindices are a family of composite indicators used to assess the risk of weapons of mass destruction proliferation by states and non-state actors. Each index combines multiple indicators into a single score, with sub-indices highlighting different drivers of proliferation.

The concept emerged in security studies and policy analysis as researchers sought systematic, comparable measures of proliferation risk beyond case-by-case assessments.

Components commonly include political stability, regime type, defense spending, export controls, implementation of nonproliferation treaties, dual-use trade controls, intelligence-sharing capacity, sanctions exposure, past proliferation incidents, scientific-technical capacity, and international alignments.

Calculation typically standardizes data, then combines them using weights or data-driven methods; results are scaled to a 0 to 100 range, and missing data are imputed. Updates may occur monthly or annually.

Interpretation: Higher values indicate greater proliferation risk, while sub-indices help identify the major risk channels.

Applications include informing policy discussions in government and international organizations, guiding sanctions planning, export-control reform, and supporting academic research on nonproliferation trends.

Limitations include dependence on the quality and timeliness of underlying data, subjectivity in weighting, potential biases in indicator selection, and the danger of over-interpreting a single composite score as a precise forecast.