Plausibleforeseeable

Plausibleforeseeable is a neologism used in risk management and policy analysis to denote events or outcomes that are both plausible and foreseeable. As a combined criterion, it is intended to help analysts focus on risks that are credible in likelihood and within the realm of what can reasonably be anticipated given current knowledge, trends, and modeling. The term is often employed to filter scenario sets and guide prioritization in planning and resource allocation.

In practice, assessing plausibleforeseeable scenarios involves evaluating probability and foreseeability through a mix of historical data, expert judgment, stress testing, and quantitative or qualitative modeling. Analysts may develop scenario narratives, assign risk scores, and integrate these scenarios into risk registers, contingency plans, and decision-making processes. Fields that frequently use the concept include infrastructure planning, climate and environmental risk management, cybersecurity, and disaster response.

The term is not universally standardized and can overlap with related ideas such as credible or plausible scenarios and foreseeability in legal or regulatory contexts. Critics note that judgments about plausibility and foreseeability can be subjective and depend on data quality, assumptions, and the time horizon considered. Despite these caveats, plausibleforeseeable serves as a practical heuristic for prioritizing risks that are both credible and foreseeable, aiding preparedness and resilience efforts. Related concepts include risk assessment, scenario planning, and resilience engineering.