PERTanalüüs

PERTanalüüs, short for Program Evaluation and Review Technique analysis, is a project management technique used to estimate project duration and identify critical tasks. It is particularly useful for projects with a high degree of uncertainty in task durations. PERT analysis involves breaking down a project into individual tasks and then estimating the time required for each task.

Instead of a single-point estimate, PERT uses three time estimates for each task: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. The optimistic estimate is the shortest possible time to complete the task, the most likely is the best guess, and the pessimistic is the longest possible time. These estimates are then used to calculate an expected duration for each task using a weighted average formula.

The PERT technique also involves identifying the critical path, which is the sequence of tasks that determines the shortest possible project completion time. Any delay in a critical path task will directly delay the entire project. By analyzing the critical path, project managers can focus resources and attention on the most crucial activities.

PERT analysis helps in understanding project risks by providing a probabilistic approach to time estimation. It allows for the calculation of project duration probabilities, indicating the likelihood of completing the project by a certain date. This information is valuable for stakeholders in making informed decisions and setting realistic expectations. While PERT is a powerful tool, it requires careful data collection and analysis to be effective.