Kryssvirkningsanalyse

Kryssvirkningsanalyse, or cross-impact analysis, is a forecasting technique used to identify and assess the potential interactions between various future events or trends. The core idea is that the occurrence of one event can influence the probability or impact of other events. This method helps to move beyond simple univariate forecasting by considering the complex interdependencies that shape future scenarios.

The process typically begins with identifying a set of key future events or trends relevant to the area of interest. These might include technological advancements, socio-political changes, economic shifts, or environmental factors. Once a list is compiled, each event is analyzed in relation to every other event on the list. For each pair of events, analysts determine the potential impact of one event occurring on the likelihood of the other event occurring. This impact can be positive (increasing the probability), negative (decreasing the probability), or neutral.

The results are often presented in a matrix format, where the rows and columns represent the identified events. The cells within the matrix indicate the calculated impact of one event on another. This structured approach allows for a systematic exploration of potential futures and highlights critical leverage points or cascading effects. Kryssvirkningsanalyse is particularly useful for exploring complex systems where multiple factors interact, aiding in strategic planning and risk assessment by revealing unforeseen consequences and opportunities. It is a qualitative tool that relies on expert judgment and consensus-building.