Klímaszcenáriók

Klímaszcenáriók refer to plausible future pathways of the Earth's climate system, developed to understand the potential impacts of different greenhouse gas emission levels. These scenarios are not predictions, but rather hypothetical situations used to explore how the climate might change under various socio-economic and policy assumptions. Scientists use sophisticated climate models, which are complex mathematical representations of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice, to simulate these different futures.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has historically developed and utilized various sets of scenarios, such as the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and more recently the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs represent a range of plausible societal futures that could lead to different greenhouse gas emission trajectories. For example, some SSPs assume rapid global economic growth and high fossil fuel use, leading to significant warming, while others envision a more sustainable development path with lower emissions.

By running climate models under these different klímaszcenáriók, researchers can estimate projected changes in global average temperature, precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. This information is crucial for policymakers, scientists, and the public to understand the potential risks associated with climate change and to inform decisions about mitigation and adaptation strategies. The choice of which scenario best reflects future reality remains uncertain, highlighting the importance of considering a range of possibilities.