Handelszyklen

Handelszyklen, commonly referred to in English as business cycles, describe fluctuations in economic activity around a long-run growth trend. They consist of alternating periods of expansion and contraction, with turning points identified as peaks and troughs. Durations vary, but cycles are often categorized as short, medium, or long based on their approximate length.

Causes are multi-factorial. Shifts in aggregate demand and supply, financial conditions, innovation, and policy actions can trigger expansions or recessions. External shocks, such as oil price changes or financial crises, can precipitate downturns, while improvements in productivity or credit availability support expansions. Leading indicators include investment, orders, and consumer confidence; lagging indicators include unemployment and inflation.

Several theories explain cycle timing: Juglar cycles about 7–11 years driven by fixed investment; Kondratiev waves lasting 40–60 years linked to broad technological paradigms; and Kitchin cycles of 3–5 years tied to inventory management. Real business cycle theory attributes fluctuations to technology shocks and rational expectations, often with a reduced role for policy.

Measurement and dating rely on macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP or industrial production and on turning-point analyses conducted by statistical agencies or research institutes. In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research provides official dating for business cycles, with regional institutions performing similar work elsewhere.

Policy relevance and critique: Handelszyklen have motivated stabilization and macroprudential policies aimed at damping volatility while maintaining growth. Critics note that cycles are not as regular or predictable as earlier theories suggested, and that globalization, finance, and structural change have altered cycle dynamics.