Cannibalisaatioanalyysi

Cannibalisaatioanalyysi, known in English as cannibalization analysis, is a business technique used to assess the impact that a new product, service, or marketing initiative has on the sales of existing offerings within the same company. The goal is to determine whether the new initiative is merely shifting sales from one product to another or actually increasing the company’s overall revenue and market share.

The analysis typically begins with the collection of historical sales data for the existing product family. Analysts then model scenarios in which the new offering enters the market, using tools such as regression analysis, share-of-wallet approaches, and market simulation. Key variables include the timing of the introduction, pricing strategy, promotion intensity, and distribution channels. By comparing projected sales of each product under different scenarios, companies can quantify the percentage of sales that are cannibalized versus new sales created.

Cannibalization analysis is especially valuable in high-tech, fast‑moving consumer goods, and software industries, where product life cycles are short and differentiation is critical. It informs decisions such as product line extensions, bundle configurations, and pricing strategies, while helping managers avoid over‑crowding a market segment. Common pitfalls involve neglecting external market dynamics or oversimplifying consumer behavior, which can lead to inaccurate forecasts. Properly conducted cannibalization analysis thus supports rational, data‑driven strategy formulation.