räjähtävyysharha

Räjähtävyysharha, also known as the explosivity illusion, is a cognitive bias that affects how people perceive the likelihood of events. It describes a tendency to overestimate the probability of rare but dramatic or explosive outcomes, while underestimating the probability of more common, less sensational events. This bias is often amplified by media coverage, which tends to focus on extraordinary occurrences.

The explosivity illusion can lead to distorted risk assessments. For example, people might become overly fearful of rare but highly publicized dangers like plane crashes, while neglecting more common risks such as car accidents or certain health conditions. This can influence decision-making in various areas, including personal finance, health choices, and public policy. The underlying psychological mechanisms are thought to involve availability heuristic, where vivid and easily recalled examples influence judgment, and a natural human fascination with dramatic events. Overcoming the explosivity illusion requires conscious effort to seek out objective data and consider a broader range of potential outcomes, rather than relying on emotionally charged or readily available information.