overoptimistiske

Overoptimistiske is an adjective used in Danish and Norwegian to describe beliefs, forecasts, or attitudes characterized by excessive optimism that tends to overlook risks or countervailing evidence. The term is formed from over- meaning excessive and optimistisk meaning optimistic. It is commonly applied to people, plans, or statements.

In psychology and decision-making, overoptimism is related to optimism bias and the planning fallacy, where individuals underestimate the likelihood of negative outcomes and overestimate the ease of achieving goals. It is distinguished from everyday positive thinking by its systematic underweighting of risk and uncertainty.

Contexts include business forecasts, project management, political predictions, and personal plans. Examples: a startup forecast predicting profitability within months without considering market challenges; a construction project budget that assumes no delays.

Consequences can include financial losses, missed deadlines, overambitious commitments, and reputational damage. Mitigation strategies emphasize realistic risk assessment, scenario planning, explicit contingencies, independent review, and premortems.

The term is chiefly used in Danish-language discourse, with cognates in Norwegian and Swedish. Related concepts include optimism bias, the planning fallacy, and overconfidence.