katastrofriskbedömningar

Katastrofrisk, commonly translated as catastrophe risk, denotes the potential for large losses from rare but high‑impact events. This includes natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires, as well as pandemics and major man‑made incidents like cyberattacks or industrial accidents. The concept is central to insurance, reinsurance, financial risk management, and urban planning, where the aim is to quantify, diversify, and transfer potential losses.

Catastrophe risk is characterized by low probability and high severity, with losses that can be geographically clustered. Modeling combines hazard data, exposure information, and vulnerability assumptions to estimate potential losses. Analysts use loss-exceedance curves, expected annual loss, and tail-risk metrics, often incorporating climate projections. Model risk and data gaps are recognized limitations.

Risk transfer mechanisms such as insurance and reinsurance spread potential losses across markets. Financial instruments like catastrophe bonds and other securitized products provide capital to insurers after events. Mitigation also relies on resilience measures—diversification across regions and lines of business, prudent land-use planning, stronger building codes, and resilient infrastructure.

Catastrophe risk has important implications for financial stability and solvency regulation, as large events can affect insurers, reinsurers, and capital markets. Ongoing research seeks to improve models, better capture dependencies among hazards, and account for evolving risk from climate change and urban development.