ilmaennustusmudelitele

Ilmaennustusmudelitele, also referred to as “MudeLite,” is a high‑resolution mesoscale weather prediction system developed by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) in collaboration with the University of Helsinki and the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The model is designed to provide accurate local forecasts for the Nordic region, particularly Finland, Sweden, and parts of Russia, on time scales ranging from hourly updates to seven‑day outlooks.

The system combines data assimilation from a dense network of surface stations, weather radars, and satellite imagery with a sophisticated numerical core based on the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) framework. Key innovations include the adoption of machine‑learning algorithms for short‑term prediction enhancement and the incorporation of high‑resolution topographic and land‑use datasets that improve precipitation and temperature estimates over complex terrain. MudeLite operates at a horizontal grid spacing of 1 km in its most detailed configuration, providing fine‑scale resolution of convective processes that traditional global models often overlook.

First released publicly in late 2023, the model has gradually been integrated into the FMI’s operational forecast services. It is accessed via a dedicated web portal and through APIs that allow integration into local government emergency management systems, aviation, and maritime navigation services. Independent evaluations by the Nordic Data Centre for Climate and Weather have confirmed that MudeLite offers statistically significant improvements over the ECMWF Interim Model for local precipitation and temperature predictions during mid‑season months. The model’s open‑source code, released under a BSD license, encourages collaboration and further development by the global meteorological community.