händelserträdanalys

Händelserträdanalys, often translated as Event Tree Analysis (ETA), is a graphical method used in safety engineering and risk assessment to systematically identify potential outcomes and their probabilities following an initiating event. It starts with a specific undesired event, such as equipment failure or human error, and then branches out to represent possible sequences of events, including safety system responses and their potential successes or failures.

The analysis typically depicts a tree-like structure where each branch represents a specific event or outcome. The initial event is at the root of the tree, and subsequent branches illustrate the status of safety functions or procedural steps. For instance, if the initiating event is a pump failure, subsequent branches might represent whether the backup pump activates or fails, or whether an alarm is triggered and responded to.

Probabilities are assigned to each branch, representing the likelihood of that particular event occurring. By multiplying the probabilities along a specific path from the root to an endpoint, the overall probability of that particular outcome sequence can be determined. This allows for the quantification of the risk associated with different failure scenarios and helps in understanding the effectiveness of various safety measures. Händelserträdanalys is valuable for identifying critical failure points, evaluating safety system reliability, and prioritizing risk reduction efforts. It is commonly applied in industries like nuclear power, chemical processing, and aerospace.