handelsschokken

Handelsschokken is a term used in international economics to describe sudden and sizeable disturbances to trade flows between countries or regions. These shocks affect the volume and/or prices of imports and exports and can alter a country’s terms of trade and real GDP. They arise from exogenous events such as changes in tariffs, sanctions, geopolitical tensions, commodity price swings, or disruptions to global supply chains, including transport bottlenecks and pandemics. They can be transmitted through exchange-rate movements, demand shifts abroad, and the structure of domestic industries that depend on imported inputs.

Economists measure trade shocks with indicators such as volatility in trade values and volumes, changes in import and export shares, and model-based impulse responses in trade and macroeconomic frameworks. The effects depend on exposure: open economies, commodity exporters, and manufacturing sectors with large import content are typically more affected. Short-run consequences include fluctuations in GDP, inflation, employment, and current-account balances; longer-run consequences may involve sectoral reallocation and changes in comparative advantage.

Policy responses to handelsschokken include diversifying supply chains, increasing stock buffers, hedging and risk management, and adjusting trade and industrial policies. Monetary and fiscal authorities may respond to adverse shocks with stabilization measures. The term is widely used in Dutch-language economic literature and is sometimes described in English as 'trade shocks'.