eseményláncmódszertan

Eseményláncmódszertan, often translated as Event Chain Methodology (ECM), is a risk analysis technique used to identify and analyze the sequence of events that can lead to a particular undesirable outcome. It is particularly useful for complex systems where multiple factors can interact and contribute to failure. The core principle of ECM is to deconstruct a system's failure into a series of linked events, starting from the initiating cause and progressing through intermediate states to the final consequence. This allows for a more granular understanding of how risks manifest and where intervention points might be most effective.

The methodology typically involves identifying the top-level undesirable event, then working backward to identify the immediate preceding events that could cause it. This process is repeated iteratively, creating a chain of causal relationships. Each link in the chain represents a conditional probability, meaning that the occurrence of one event increases the likelihood of the next. By mapping these event chains, analysts can visualize potential failure pathways and assess the likelihood of the final undesirable outcome occurring. ECM can be applied to a wide range of fields, including engineering, safety management, project management, and cybersecurity, to improve risk assessment and mitigation strategies.