couldbetuft
couldbetuft is a neologism used in discussions of probability, decision theory, and cognitive psychology to denote a small, uncertain possibility that a person mentally entertains when evaluating outcomes. It functions as a metaphor for fringe or low-probability hypotheses that could, in principle, influence reasoning or decisions if considered in a different context. The term is not part of formal statistical methodology; it has no standardized definition or measurement, and usage varies across sources.
Etymology: The term combines "could be" with "tuft" to evoke a tiny, fuzzy cluster of potential options
Applications: In teaching probability, couldbetuft can illustrate how priors, base rates, and the weighting of rare
Limitations: Because it is informal, couldbetuft lacks precise criteria, making it unsuitable for rigorous analysis. Users
Related concepts: counterfactuals, possible worlds, fringe hypotheses, Bayesian reasoning, heuristics.